The monthly Case-Shiller home price data are out for November 2016. Seems like a long time ago, considering how quickly Seattle prices are changing. The report confirms that feeling. From November to November, Seattle housing prices climbed 10.4 percent, according to their index based on a three month moving average. That’s down from the September 2013 peak of 13.2 percent. It was only five years earlier when prices were still falling, -6.3 percent in November 2011.
The aptly named SeattleBubble.com has been tracking such statistics since 2005 when the November data showed an 18.5 percent rise followed by the April 2009 -16.8 percent drop. Boom, bubble, burst, boom. Real estate is not dull, especially around Seattle.
Since last March we’ve been above the previous peak, which suggests the overall market has made up its losses. Your results will vary. The rise is happening more slowly this time, even though it may not feel that way, which may be a moderation in the trend.
This time may be different. As we’ve mentioned before, Seattle’s economy is growing, the city is attracting businesses and workers for financial and cultural reasons, and foreign investors are increasingly drawn to our real estate.
Demand remains high. Supply remains low. Getting more houses above water on their mortgages may increase supply. More jobs, or maybe even some east coast refugees, may increase demand. Until the fundamentals shift, our market will probably remain the same. Hot, even in the winter.